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《地产周刊》成功举办当前经济大势与投资机会论坛

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日期:08-14点击数:7411

8月8日,《地产周刊》在万锦市中心HSBC大楼会议室,成功举办“当前加元汇率背景下的经济形势与投资机会分析论坛”,现场座无虚席,听众与5位演讲嘉宾济济一堂,共同探讨加拿大的宏观经济形势,加元、美元、人民币的汇率波动和由此带来的金融市场和地产市场的投资机会。

《地产周刊》社长黄力先生在致辞中,首先感谢大家在炎热的夏日午后前来参加论坛,以及皇后金融总裁蒋志成先生、宏财金融总裁杨凡先生、OTT方圆国际总裁Kevin Zhang先生、职业外汇操盘手吴灏先生和嘉德集团总裁李丁先生5位演讲嘉宾。他强调,《地产周刊》创刊十年,扎根社区,致力于为广大读者提供全面专业的经济、地产和金融资讯,在他们和各个领域的专家之间搭起互动的桥梁。“举办经济论坛正是跨出的新一步。在加拿大经济疲软、加元迅速贬值的今天,如何让自己的资产不至出现缩水,达到保值增值,是摆在每个人面前的严峻课题。我们也希望未来有更多的主题论坛和活动呈献给大家,也希望大家给予我们更多的支持和鼓励。”

一、加拿大宏观经济与投资机会

加元投资境外为宜  美元投美国地产更佳

皇后金融总裁蒋志成先生:

按照普遍的经济规律来讲,近阶段加拿大各项经济指标数据的持续下滑,表明经济确实已陷入衰退。当前正值大选的敏感时期,执政者将经济下滑归罪于石油价格不断走低。的确,石油绑架加拿大经济成为一个显而易见的事实。石油已经是加拿大的经济指向,只要它下跌加拿大经济必然受影响,因此石油目前没有任何走好的迹象,加拿大未来的经济状况仍不容乐观。

第二个值得关注的事实,就是CPI揭示的通胀情况。这在我们普通民众的生活中感受尤其明显,无论是食品还是房价都在飕飕往上窜。造成这些的主要原因之一就是加币持续下滑,其中进口商品的价格影响最大。今年除1月和4月通胀为负值,其他均为正值。目前的情况是消费能力疲软,油价下降,汇率下滑,当然低汇率有利于出口。

最近加拿大利率两次下调,加元兑美元贬值加速。我们看到最近25年,利率最高的是1991年,为16%,最低的是现在的0.25%-0.5%,目前是历史低位,几乎没有下行空间了。反观美国,第二季度情况经济增长2.3%,而一季度是0.6%,美国经济明显处于复苏中。就业情况方面,一个月创造新职位21.5万。此外通胀情况比加拿大低,美国也没出现通缩。美元指数目前对其他一篮子货币总体趋势向上,达到97左右。而历史上美元指数最高是1985 年的164.72,最低是2008年。美国的利率现在0.25%,为历史最低,在80年代末曾高达20%。最近全球市场波动激烈主要受美元可能会加息消息影响。美联储主席艾伦已明确表示加息,美元指数受利好支撑明显。

目前,人民币相对于加元已升值不少,因为人民币一直绑定美元。而美金和加元关系的核心就是石油问题。 如果手头有加元的话,从汇率的角度讲应投资于境外;而如果手头有美金的话,应当直接投资于跟加拿大没有关系的美国房地产。比如皇后金融目前推出的美国地产基金项目,包括已建造完成的物业,带有租客,项目成熟度好,其收益换回加元则可得到更多利润。

低利率将持续很久  加元投资应放眼全球

宏财金融总裁杨凡先生:

由于能源价格一直处于历史低位,而且能源相关行业占加拿大经济总量的四分之一。加拿大人目前需要改变过往一贯投资的思维方式。加拿大是一个资源密集型的国家,中国等新兴市场国家经济增长放缓的大环境下拖累了加拿大的经济增长。而且加拿大人负债水平的今年来的攀升已经高达GDP的165%;加拿大需要低利息环境来缓解债务压力,所以加拿大的低利息环境将会维持很长一段时间。而相反美国的经济复苏步伐相对要稳固一些所以,现在加拿大人的投资策略应该放眼全球。

现在低利息的环境下,银行的定期存款获得的利息只是象征性的,很难跑赢生活成本的逐年增加。作为一个多年为客户打理个人投资的理财顾问,我认为管理好投资从来没有像现在这样重要。我在2008年10月就提过巴菲特已经出手,我们应该对市场长期增长有信心。在2009年3月美国股市见底后,道琼斯指数在2013年开始就屡屡刷出新高。但是依旧有不少面临退休,或者已经退休的老年人因为害怕市场风险,一直将现金闲置在银行里。我觉得非常可惜,过去几年,即使投入固定收益的债券型的基金都有机会获得每年5%左右的回报。

经历这六年的增长,股市处于历史高位没错,估值水平也高于历史平均水平,但是如果将资金全部撤离股市,而寄望于等待一个抄底机会则很难把握,反而容易错失机会。投资者,特别是散户投资者应该有个MULTI-ASSET的概念: 即资产类别分摊的概念。可以将股票和债券作出平衡配置,这样永远不会丧失机会,也可以控制自己投资组合的风险敞口。

对于普通投资者,主动管理也将是未来的趋势。过去几年,利息水平屡创新低;市场普涨,投资者往往追捧指数基金以及ETF就能获得不错的收益。但是今年市场似乎结束了单边向上的态势,并且出现了反反复复的折返走势,使得指数基金等被动管理策略失去作用。伴随着美联储加息的预期,投资者更需要一个可靠的投资顾问,可以帮助普通人找到优秀的stock picker即主动管理基金经理。

二、外汇市场分析和投资策略

产业转型结束后人民币将进入贬值通道

OTT方圆国际总裁Kevin Zhang先生:

我希望从生活化的角度,来解释加币、人民币和美元叠加的影响,以及我们的应对之策。我演讲的核心有三个点:加元、人民币和经济周期。

过去相当长的时间内,加元都非常风光,我认识的人中很少有人认为加元会大幅下跌。8年前我的朋友中很多都是加元的死多头。风水轮流转,加元是石油货币,也是资源货币,过去十年石油持续上涨,加元搭乘顺风车。但未来经济周期显然对加元和石油不利。我感觉石油作为一个强势的经济符号,其行情在未来经济周期可能结束,而可能被太阳能等替代能源所取代。一个明显的例证就是特斯拉充一次电可跑500公里。因此,构成加元强势的基础被抽掉了,加元的前景仍不容乐观。

我感觉没有强势石油作为依托的加拿大,未来相当长时期内恐怕20年内都仍将是一个二流国家,当然这并非是人民生活不幸福。以前中国有求于加拿大,主要是资源方面需求,未来恐怕也要有所转变了。

反观美国,2008年开始降息,从5%降至0,伴随而来的是经济成功转型,新能源、新科技等都蓬勃发展、有声有色。在经济复苏明显之后,开始加息周期,慢慢地加上去,以逐步吸引外资回流。经济复苏信号明显,加之美元加息预期强烈,因此近一年来美元与加元的汇率渐行渐远也不足为奇。

那么人民币未来又会怎样呢?捆绑美元仍然是主基调。我认为,人民币对美元升值是一种政治需求,而贬值则是经济内在需求。中国仍然是出口大国,因此预期2-3年内不会大规模贬值。那么贬值的时间点如何判断呢?全民产业转型需要时间,同时带动内需转型。中国产品出口主要是依靠资源优势而非汇率优势的。而等到产业转型结束,人民币开始进入贬值通道则比较理想。

我们回顾历史,日本货币最高点和最低点相差4倍,韩元则相差24倍。1992年的时候1美元兑换15000卢布,卢布贬值2万倍。因此,未来人民币一旦贬值,可能5倍都止不住。这两年我觉得应逐渐把人民币换成加币,并且跨市场套利。目前中国人名下的存款在加拿大有3000亿加元,出路基本上除了买房就是存款。两三年之内,中国资产转入加拿大买房是一个不错的策略。OTT方圆国际现在有基金管理牌照,我们正在设想建立一个众筹基金模式,边走边看,争取从汇率波动中获得增长机遇。

美元短期偏淡  中长期仍看多

职业外汇操盘手吴灏先生:

从市场定价来看,投资者预期美联储9月升息的概率为70%,这令近期美元一直维持强势,特别对新兴市场货币显著走高。市场还认为美联储年内年底之前会再次升息。

但是,美联储12月货币政策决议离现在还有一段时间,而中国的前景又存在高度不确定性。因此我们对于短期内的美元利率都持谨慎态度。虽然就中长期而言,仍然能看多美元表现。

美元指数日线走势图

美元指数运行在近20年的中轨位置。从上图可以看到美元指数的已经完成上升5浪结构,目前运行在ABC调整浪的C中。虽然上周五的非农就业数据支持了美联储加息的预期,但是美元也仅仅是短暂触及了上方的阻力位98.35一带,并未成功突破上行,反而在接下来的一段时间里不断承压下行。不过我们应该看到,美元的一个上涨三角形还是维持的很完整,上行趋势仍未被破坏。但下周的行情将考验上升通道趋势线在96一线的支撑。一旦跌破将继续下行至93.50一线。

对于汇率和利率市场来说,大宗商品中的原油和铜价格十分关键。两者均持续下跌,且未出现任何见底信号。油价也是美国通胀保值国债(TIPS)利率的重要驱动因素之一,对大家关心的美元/加元也有着重要的指引作用。WTI短期合约能否在40美元/桶的心理关口觅得支撑将变得十分关键。目前,原油和加元的投机性空头仓位规模已经逼近极限水平。

美元加元周线走势图

上图可以看到美元加元目前运行在上升5浪的小3浪的尾端,调整在即。预计汇价将回撤至1.28一线后再有冲击1.35新高的可能。

所以从目前的市场走势来看,我不看好美元的短线走势,美元将会有一波向下的调整。对于目前市场对于美元加息的预期已经计入汇价,外汇市场一直有买预期卖事实的情况。如果美元加息的靴子真落地了,并不一定利好美元。但中长期我还是看好美元,美元重回强势应该是年底或明年初了。

三、加元汇率波动下的房地产市场投资

加元汇率不是GTA房价主要决定因素

嘉德集团总裁李丁先生:

我以前在中国经贸部工作,与汇率打交道时间不短,因此对于加元汇率和多伦多地产价格的关系还是有一点个人体会的。

多伦多房价近几年气势如虹,大家关心的是价格还能涨多少。2008年全球金融危机时GTA房价稍许徘徊,而后一路向上,到现在很多人已经表示看不懂了。Unionville均价涨到150万元,富豪山庄涨到200万元,北约克也差不多,5月份GTA独立屋均价首次超越温哥华。

我觉得地产市场价格主要决定因素还是供求关系,汇率诸多因素中的一小部分。即使加元兑人民币变成1:1,不想在多伦多买房的人仍然不会买。根据我多年实践中的体会,汇率下降,并不会吸引更多人来买房。房价上涨,靠的是移民总数和增量、低利率、汇率、留学政策、人口增长等等。目前的一个显著事实就是房屋新增供应量在减少,安省政府规定只有green belt以内可建房卖房,相反需求仍在不断增加。另外,居民群体收入水平影响他们的决策,亿万富翁自住可能会考虑300万到1000万的房子,投资者则一般不会选择300万以上的房子。因此假如你花150万元把空地买下来建房,建筑成本100万元,那么请问利润在哪里?

现在Willowdale的独立屋均价也达到130-150万,新房冲到300万也冲不上去。收入水平和供求总量对房价影响很大。而加元汇率走势和多伦多房产走势我认为基本上不能挂钩,最多微弱相关。

Unionville的房子我估计涨到180-200万差不多了。另外我并不建议再介入Willowdale地区,因为升值空间不大,目前已经200-300万左右,建房后利润不高。现在的社会精英区域主要是北约克南部,均价150万,仍旧看涨至200万。另外万锦的Markville个人也比较看好,学区而言不比Unionvill额差,大学录取率很理想,比如最近成交一套价格为118万元,未来升值空间仍不错。

地产周刊主办的本次论坛圆满成功,许多听众都表示受益匪浅,希望地产周刊继续主办这种有深度、有内容,确实可以惠及到民众的实用性的论坛。论坛结束的时候,还有纵多听众不愿离去,希望可以更多的与专家们沟通取经,聆听他们关于投资理财方面的真知灼见。理财置业是每个家庭的头等大事,地产周刊秉承“好报,好房,好家”的办报理念,将继续服务于社区的民众,与大家一起携手并肩,共同实现安居乐业,完美家园的梦。在接下来的9月地产周刊将继续主办更详尽、更实用、更有深度的论坛,将继续邀请众多知名财经和地产专家们做客讲坛,手把手传授大家如何理财置业,敬请期待!

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