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谁说多温的房子会跌? 八月楼市要多火热有多火热!

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日期:09-09点击数:4721

以为温哥华楼市一定会跌的吃瓜群体再次失望。

8月,温哥华楼市价格暴涨,销售量暴跌!

担心多伦多楼市会暴涨的吃瓜群众,担忧变成了可怕的现实。

8月,多伦多楼市除了一个涨字,无它!

所有的祸根来自于BC省7月25日公布的一项地产新政:向海外买家征收15%的房产转让税(property transfer tax),新政已于8月2日开始执行。希望借此阻止外国买家疯狂炒高楼价,冷却大温哥华地区的房屋市场。这15%的财产转让税将适用于外国公民或外国控股企业在大温哥华区域内购买的所有类型住宅。

新政执行前的BC省财产转让税是前20万收1%,20万至200万按2%征收,超出2百万的部分交3%。换算下来,200万的物业旧制的房产转让税是3.8万。依据新政,海外买家买200万的房产要交30万的房产转让税,比现有税率提高了整整8倍。

结果呢?温哥华的房子没跌,多伦多的房子暴涨!啥也不说了,数据说话吧。

多伦多八月楼市除了暴涨 无它!

9月7日,多伦多地产局公布最新的8月地产报告,数据显示,整个大多伦多地区通过MLS系统销售的房屋共计9,813宗,与2015年8月同期相比增长23.5%。8月大多地区房屋均价为710,410元,与去同期的603,534元相比,上涨17.7%。

8月份多伦多市内(416地区)的独立屋现平均售价为120万6,637元,同比涨幅18.3%;多伦多周边(905地区)独立屋的平均售价为90万5,610元,同比大涨23.3%。除独立屋之外,416地区和905地区的半独立屋和镇屋的平均售价也是同比呈全面上涨态势,分别涨幅为16.4%和20.6%,以及16.9%和18.4%;416地区和905地区的共管公寓涨幅也较为明显,分别为9.8%和9.2%。

整体大多伦多楼市无论销量还是价格,都呈井喷状态。所谓的八月淡季一说,到了多伦多这里就完全就不适用。

温哥华八月楼市价格暴涨销量暴跌 不卖!

温哥华地产局公布的数据证实:8月温哥华楼市均价为93万3100加元,比2015年8月暴涨31.4%,与过去三个月的平均值相比上涨4.9%。其中,独立屋均价比去年同期上涨35.8%,至 $1,577,300,比过去三个月上涨4.2%。半独立屋均价比去年同期上涨31.1%,至 $677,600,比过去三个月上涨7.1%。公寓均价比去年同期上涨26.9%,至 $514,300,比过去三个月上涨6.1%。

房屋均价暴涨的同时,销售量却大幅下跌。数据显示,8月份温哥华有2,489宗独立屋、公寓和镇屋交易成交,与去年8月的3,362宗相比,同比下降了26%。其中,独立屋销售量比去年同期大跌44.6%,半独立屋销量比去年同期下跌25.4%,公寓销量比去年同期下跌10.1%。从历史角度看,8月份的交易量比过去十年的8月份交易量平均值低3.5%,创了十年来的新低。

原本想借15%海外买家税来冷却温哥华楼市,起到了一定的作用,但似乎没有达到预期的目标。专家指出,“其实在过去几个月,温哥华的房屋交易量已经有了下跌的趋势,而对海外买家加税15%这一政策加速这一过程,该政策限制海外买家的活动性,但也增加本地买家和卖家的交易不确定性。”也有相关专家表示,如果交易量下跌的唯一原因是新政策出台的话,那么并不能说房市正“回归正常”。

房屋交易量剧减,显示温哥华仍旧是卖家市场,因为挂牌上市的房屋数量相当地有限。“成交量是上市数量的29.3%,这代表温哥华仍是卖家市场。”资深专家这样说。

图为5年间温哥华房价趋势,蓝色线为独立屋,黑色线为住宅,红色为镇屋,绿色为Apartment

多温楼市持续上涨的原因分析

大多伦多、大温哥华的楼市持续上涨,全部要归因于海外买家吗?事实并非如此。确实,近年来,随着移民数量的增加,多伦多、温哥华作为移民落地首要的居住地,楼市上涨是大势所趋,但楼市持续上涨并非全是移民的“功劳”。

1)加国经济持续低迷,形成历史罕见的超低利率,是造成多温楼市持续上涨的一个强有力的诱因。

中央银行维持0.5%基准利率不变已经有一段时间,这个历史超低基准利率,形成,多伦多房屋贷款5年的浮动利率一般在2.3-2.5%左右,5年的固定利率也只在3%附近徘徊。可以说,当前多伦多房贷利率基本处在十年来的历史最低时期,低利率,不仅提升房产的可负担性,也势必更加刺激购房者消费和投资的意愿。

2) 房市供求关系,市场就是个硬指标。

自由经济年代,供求关系是影响房市的最重要因素,是一只强大的“看不见的手”。无论是买方市场还是卖方市场,只要供求关系平衡,房市就会处于一个平衡的状态。温哥华8月楼市均价暴涨,未尝不是销售量暴跌形成的不平衡状态的影响。

3)多伦多的购房大军从个体转移到家族力量购买房产。

天下地产的Michael Wang在其专栏文章里,给大家讲了一个真实的案例。今年五月,带一个客人抢offer。由于客人贷款上限已设定,我们知道那套房产无法抢到,就当是观战吧。我和客人饶有兴致地看着其他8家老外,你死我活地争抢这套独立屋。“战事”正酣时,突然发现,一对70岁左右的老外夫妻,开着一辆旧车,停在我们附近,也加入静静观察这场抢房大战的行列。开始时,以为是邻近房产的访客,来看朋友,也没在意。等到卖家经纪宣布胜利者时,从一个经纪车里,跑出来一个年轻人,冲到停在旁边的一辆车里,同他的父母拥抱欢庆。那对老夫妇也从车里下来,走到那辆车的旁边高声欢呼。这下才明白,原来这是一家子,为老夫妇的孙子购房。

其实,这样的案例不慎美剧,国内的父母为国外留学的孩子买房;边远小镇的父母为孩子在大城市比如多伦多、温哥华买房等等。

4)投资的价值评估。

唱衰楼市者总表示,多温的楼市已经疯狂,处于非正常状态。实际情况呢,我们以多伦多为例吧,多伦多是加拿大的经济引擎,住在多伦多就意味着工作机会、生存机会、多元化的文化氛围;也意味着人口从加拿大内陆各省迁移到多伦多的现象;意味着北美人口第四大城市逐渐蜕变成世界级的超级城市的过程。既然是世界级的城市,来几个外国人买房子算什么?

房子拿来自住永远排在第一位,如果是自住的刚性需求,“长租不如买”,那就不用理会未来可能的涨跌趋势了。如果大家正计划在多伦多安家落户,购买第一个住房或者有换屋意愿,选择更为合适自己的生活方式,个人建议是不要等待观望;如果是投资,还是得控制好现金流和风险,纵观加拿大楼市,大家还是很有信心,前景光明,无论是投资还是自住,都是最好的选择。

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