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大多地区房产综合评述(二百二十二)为什么要尽早投资地产(二)

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日期:09-28点击数:2716

上回文章说到了投资地产是一个可以极度利用杠杆定律,放大你的投资收益的极好工具。现在让我们来做一个实验。假设你手头有20万现金,你可能为了谋取利润,把这20万作为基本成本,投资一个生意。一般的情况下,投资生意的年回报率好的情况之下在20%左右,可是实际的情况是,据不完全统计,北美小生意接近90%在5年之内濒于破产,只有10%左右才能够存活下来。也就是说你投资20万,90%的机率你会血本无归。

再看看股票,你投资20万,你基本上来讲也就是购买了20万价值的股票。股票升值了,你就可以赚钱了,股票贬值了,你就亏本了。相信大部分人都有过购买基金股票的经历,我非常好奇地想问一下读者,你的基金翻倍了吗?你是否相信翻倍之后还能够翻倍?你是否相信自己的股票可以保障你退休养老?而不是到了养老那一天,你的基金会像北电那样,一落千丈,变得分文不值。2008年金融危机之后,我的一些已经退休的本地医生朋友,又回去上班了。我问他们出了什么事?这些曾经的高收入人群,告诉我,Michael,惨啦,我们的股票跌得太惨了,不回去上班怎么养老?所以金融危机之后,一批“老当益壮”的医生又以“十二万分”的热情投入到了他们热爱的职业里去了。

那么地产呢?2008年仅仅经过了半年的时间,就从踌躇不前,一跃到了今天的惊人涨幅。想当初拥有地产的人群被认为是投资最最保守的人群。从商业教科书里,从新闻撰稿里,从科学研究里都认为投资地产是谨慎的投资行当。实际上是这样吗?我认为那样评论地产投资的专栏文章可以封存了。

实际情况是,投资地产充满风险,充满挑战,投资地产的路上充满了陷阱和不确定性。但是,她同时充满了机会和巨大无比的回报。想象一下,你在40年前投资一个5万加币的房产,首付支付20%,也就是1万加币。经过40年的风风雨雨,你的5万加币的房产变成了75万。你的一万加币被放大成了75倍。75/40=1.88倍。也就是说,你的一万加币的投资,每年的回报率是188%。试问,世界上还有没有如此稳定地以每一年平均增长188%的金融产品?我想会有的,当然数量极少。可是在多伦多每个物业基本上都经历了这个传奇。所以,我总是说,多伦多充满机会,多伦多遍地是黄金。你没有捡到黄金,是因为你没有看见黄金,而不是黄金不存在。多伦多的地产奇迹其实并不是奇迹,在世界上,她只能算是平均值。而这个平均值已经可以让旁观者的你惊爆眼球了。投资地产杠杆的力量和魅力在多伦多这块土地上大放异彩。

读者可以计算一下,如果你现在的物业价值百万以上,当初购买你的物业的最最初始的主人,如果没有把房产卖给你,而是一直坚守,那么如果他/她拥有三套房产到今天,他们会过上怎样的退休生活?李嘉诚说过的,房地产是一种等待的行业!谁能等得起,谁就是最大的赢家!这句话是一个真理,多伦多只不过是这个真理的一个缩影。想当初在北京购买最初的商品房的“原始股”的持有者,如果一直持有到现在,那将是什么样的生活呀。

让我引述一段互联网上的一段话:“大家都见过电视广告,或者广告牌关于房屋贷款的广告。你从来都不会看到广告这么说:“想要投资钻石、古董、画品、贵重金属、股票、存款证明、互惠基金或者电话卡?来找我们,我们会借钱给你投资。”这听起来有点疯狂,对么?这些报章杂志、电视频道和广告牌不断的有提供你投资物业的资金的广告。”

为什么投资黄金古董没人借钱给你,而投资地产却有一大把人?因为人们的潜意识里都知道,房产从长期来讲是不会跌的。还有另外一层含义,借钱给你的人都知道,出钱的人未必赚得过借钱的人。在地产投资上借钱的人只要知道自己在干什么,赚钱是一定的。而且很多时候,是赚大钱。

有些人愿意购买豪车,其实一辆昂贵的汽车就可以支付一处物业的首付。按照专业投资者的眼光来看,购买豪车的钱是打了水漂的。因为拿这些钱投资物业,利用杠杆原理,你今后退休了,可以拥有数十辆宾利,奔驰或者宝马。而这些豪车的钱也不是你辛苦赚来的,而是市场“无私”赠送给你的。不少人拥有豪宅情节,我告诉他们,其实每个人都可以住上300万以上的豪宅,而且免费。只要你现在肯于投资,坐拥几套投资房产的你,在退休之后,完全有能力租一套豪宅享受一下,而且租金还是你出租房的租客为你支付的。到了那个时候,你的出租房早就付清了,租金收入变成了纯收入,你还怕自己付不起一个月7000加币以上的租金吗?而且我可以保证,租了一年之后,你就会对豪宅失去兴趣,因为太大了,一对退休夫妇实在是无法打理。可是,你起码过足了豪宅瘾,这辈子对自己也算有个交代了。

对于地产投资杠杆还有疑问的朋友,不妨多问一问有实际投资经验的朋友,而不是问一些天天唱衰地产的学者,专家。如果这些专家都赚到钱了,他们也就不用唱衰地产了。在北美,天天都有人问你是否有加拿大经验,美国工作经验。这其实是很客观的。没有这里的经验,一个远在欧洲的学者凭什么可以推论多伦多的地产是涨还是跌呢?

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