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大多地区房产综合评述(二百二十四)为什么要尽早投资地产(四)

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日期:09-28点击数:3119

美国从2011年开始发力,大搞亚太再平衡战略,说穿了就是节制中国崛起的战略。亚太再平衡从表面上来看,是通过给亚太地区的美国小兄弟们,鼓噪打气,实际上,美国还有一招阴险至极的好棋。台湾问题会是美国在亚太再平衡战略的终极杀手。而中国领导层也非常明白这一毒招,一直对于蔡英文非常警惕。美国经历了苏联倒台之后的战略胜利,从冷战时期的两军对垒,到了冷战之后的“孤独求败”,美国人全世界打遍了没找到对手,正在得意的时候,一回头,发现,中国已经从默默无闻,一下子变成了世界老二,这才有了奥巴马说的,美国今后一百年只当世界老大的“豪言壮语”,可是这慷慨激昂的说词里,总是有那么一种无力感,因为被中国人追得太紧了。亚历山大呀。

我们加拿大的BC省也同样感受到了来自大洋彼岸的人民币,排山倒海一般的压力,从一开始的敞开怀抱,拥抱移民,到了现在如同防贼一样,一边骂着Donald Trump对于外来移民的政策是种族歧视,一边开始收缴外国人买房15%的税金。其实,北美的这两个国家都在干着同一件事,而且未来也会继续这样干。只要中国的国力持续上升,号称自由贸易的老牌资本主义国家就会竖起贸易壁垒的免战牌。通过收缴外国人的额外的税款,一边对于国内民众有了一个非常好的交代,一边又让自己政治正确了一把,真是一石两鸟的好事。这可谓是加拿大地产上的亚太再平衡战略。可是,这个政策其实不是政策,而是一个临时的措施。因为加拿大各级政府非常清楚,造成当前地产价格飞涨的根本性原因,不是外来移民,说穿了也不是华裔,因为我们才占不到5%的人口成分。那么是什么造成了加拿大房价居高不下呢?这才是原因:

1)历史上绝无仅有的超低利率才是地产价格上涨的绝对动因。如果我告诉你,只要你符合条件,银行就借给你100万,而且是历史最低利率,条件是,只要你不破产,保证每个月还款,银行就什么都不管。如果你财大气粗,银行愿意借给你65%的贷款,随便你买什么。条件同上。历史上,加拿大从来都没有过这样的贷款利息,50年都不曾见到。这样的利率让胆子大的人变得疯狂,让胆子小的人胆囊一夜之间像冲了气一样,气壮如牛。既然银行都不怕,我们市井小民害怕什么。光脚的从来都不怕穿鞋的。大不了破产,几年之后,老子还是一条好汉。可是,如果机会抓住了,就可以从房地产上赚到大钱了。

于是,人们从小步快跑,一下子到了奔跑的境地。这两年的地产市场也风生水起。政府是掌握资源的,也是需要平衡各种利益关系的。没有赶上这班地产快车的人,以及没有经济能力赶上这班列车的市民,自然心怀不满,政府也必然出来干预市场,平衡利益关系。替罪羊自然就落到了外国人身上。因为这种政策不会招致本国人,以及具有居留身份的外国人的攻击。可是,实际上,真正的外国人购房的人数虽然无法统计,或者说政府压根就不愿意统计,这批人并不占整体购房人口的一个绝对数量。而真正的购房中间力量,在多伦多还是平民百姓。你说,一个外国人会到Warden/Lawrence那里购房吗?可是那里的房价十年前是多少?现在又是多少?难道是外国人把那里炒起来了?

2)多伦多的购房大军已经从个体转移到了家族力量购买房产。给大家讲一个真实的案例。今年五月的时候,我带着一个客人抢offer。由于我的客人贷款的上限已定,我们知道那套房产我们无法抢到。就当是观战吧,我和客人饶有兴致地看着其他8家老外,你死我活地争抢这套独立屋。“战事”正酣的时候,我们突然发现,一对70岁左右的老外夫妻,开着一辆旧车,停在我们附近,静静地观察着这场抢房大战。开始的时候,我们以为是邻近房产的访客,来看朋友的。过了好一阵子,这对老人家还是不走,而且是坐在车子里面紧张地看着那套物业。

等到卖家经纪宣布胜利者的时候,从一个经纪的车里,一下子跑出来一个年轻人,冲到停在旁边的一辆车里,同他的父母拥抱欢庆。那对老夫妇也从车里下来了,走到那辆车的旁边高声欢呼。我们这下才明白,原来这是一家子,为了老夫妇的孙子购房。

我们今年还见识了几个家庭一起合买购房的案例。这一切都说明一个问题,多伦多全民意识的觉醒:现在不买房,今后就更没有机会了。所以,全家上阵的有之;几家合买的有之;东拼西凑借款买房的有之;把国内的房产卖掉,购房的有之,等等不一而足。

3)多伦多不是温哥华,如果大多地区出台温哥华的政策,那么我们就同温哥华没有任何区别了,我们其实回到了原始最初的状态。温哥华出台15%税收之前,多伦多温哥华比翼齐飞,房产量价齐升。现在温哥华的税金政策到底会多大程度地影响房价,我们还不清楚。如果多伦多出台同样的政策,那么我们最多就是回到了从前。这两个地方,被政府的亚太地产再平衡战略给无差别地融合了。

可是多伦多同温哥华有着本质的不同。最最重要的不同就是,多伦多是安大略省甚至是整个加拿大的经济引擎。温哥华充其量就是一个靠近亚洲的旅游城市。1999年我离开洛杉矶的时候,有人告诉我,如果那个时候加州宣布独立,她将是全世界第八大工业国。所谓经济基础决定上层建筑。多伦多意味着工作机会;意味着生存机会;意味着多元化的文化氛围;意味着人口从加拿大内部的各省大量迁移到多伦多的现象;意味着世界级的地产公司风云会际到这里从事地产开发;意味着北美人口第四大城市逐渐蜕变成世界级的超级城市的过程,正在我们面前展现;意味着多伦多正在以前所未有的速度,向四周扩张;

我们正在被巨大的人口增长所包围,我们正在见证一个历史性的事件:多伦多演变成世界级城市的过程。既然是世界级的城市,来几个外国人买房子算什么?北京最有动力买房的不都是外来户口吗?历史是不以人的喜好所转移的。你可以不喜欢抢房子,抢offer,可是不去抢,在现在的市场里那你极有可能买不到房子。最后的结果是,你还停留在原地,而你的朋友已经把你甩出去了几条街。

希望投资或者购买房产的朋友,不妨在九月十八号参加地产投资讲座,你会听到一些不同的投资理念。讲座的广告可以在本期找到。

你想让你的物业卖出高价吗?你希望成为一个成功的地产投资人吗?请联系Michael Wang。Michael Wang拥有美国硕士学位,  美加两地十余年房地产买卖,投资和物业管理经验Michael 以其广博精深的专业知识,超强的谈判能力,紧密的团队协作,助您高价快速卖房,超值无忧买房。欢迎致电Michael Wang(416)893 - 2060

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